Week 7 Pythagorean Expectation Observations

Week 6 to 7

1. There was no movement amongst the top four teams.

2. San Francisco’s lost actually moved them into the top 10 luckiest teams.

3. The five unluckiest teams in the NFL have combined for seven wins. The sixth-worst team, Baltimore, has five wins.

4. Only Cleveland’s luck has broken evenly through seven weeks.

5. NFC teams comprise 9 of the 16 luckiest teams in the NFC.


Week 6 Pythagorean Expectations Observations

Week 5 to 6

1. Seattle and Chicago’s win percentage is equal to the Pythagorean percentage.

2. San Francisco’s rank dropped 6 spots, despite winning on Monday night.

3. Baltimore (4-2) has only been slightly luckier than Jacksonville (0-6).

4. Miami dropped the furthest of any team this week, moving from 14th to 26th.

5. Arizona has won a full game more than their Pythagorean Expectation.

Week 5 Pythagorean Expectation Observations

Week 4 to 5

1. Despite both being 3-2, the Baltimore Ravens and the Indianapolis Colts, who also squared off this weekend, are the fifth and sixth unluckiest teams in the NFL, respectively.

2. 3 AFC West teams comprise the 11 unluckiest teams in the NFL (Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders).

3. Luck has been even for the Houston Texans through 5 weeks.

4. Only one team, the Minnesota Vikings, has a losing record as well as a win percentage greater than the projected win percentage of Pythagorean Expectation.

5. The Arizona Cardinals, who remain the luckiest team for a second straight week have not fallen out of the top 3 luckiest teams all year.

Week 4 Pythagorean Expectation Observations

Week 3 to 4

1. The Baltimore Ravens (3-1) have the second best Pythagorean Win Expectation at 78%. Only division rivals Cincinnati (89%) have a better percentage.

2. The Carolina Panthers, after starting 2-0, have the sixth worst Pythagorean Win Expectation at 34% as well as the second luckiest team in the NFL.

3. The Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars go head to head in two weeks. Combined, the teams are expected to win 4.48 games.

4. Despite both teams getting manhandled in prime time games, the New Orleans Saints and Washington Redskins are two of the three most unlucky teams in the NFL this season. The Indianapolis Colts are the unluckiest team in the league.

5. Every team in the NFC West has a better win percentage than their Pythagorean Expectation: Arizona (+29%), St. Louis (6%), Seattle (3%), San Francisco (1%).

Pythagorean Expectation Observations – Week 3

Week2 to 3

Click on the image for a better view of the graph.

1. Cincinnati is easily the league’s best team according to Pythagorean Expectation. The Bengals have a projected win percentage of 89%, 18% more than the next best team, the Arizona Cardinals. This in due in large part to their stalwarts on defense, who are limiting opponents to 11.0 points per game.

2. Jacksonville is the worst team in the league, managing to only have a projected win percentage of 9%. Tampa Bay comes in next at 15%. Combined, the two Florida teams have a worse projected win total than the Titans, who are fourth-worst at 24 percent.

3. Kirk Cousins’ phenomenal performance against the Eagles made the Redskins the unluckiest team in the NFL.

4. The Patriots (2-1) and the Giants’ (1-2) win percentages are the same as their projected win percentage.

5. Only Pittsburgh (2-1) and Arizona (3-0) are the only teams to remain in the top 5 “luckiest” teams through three weeks.

Records and Points courtesy of ESPN.com